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- Black_swan_theory abstract "The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairsUnlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem," the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. More technically, in the scientific monograph Lectures on Probability and Risk in the Real World: Fat Tails (Volume 1), Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability".".
- Black_swan_theory thumbnail Cygnus_Atratus_Singapore.jpg?width=300.
- Black_swan_theory wikiPageExternalLink books?id=tXiBZwEACAAJ&dq=isbn:9780141034591.
- Black_swan_theory wikiPageExternalLink 100280567.
- Black_swan_theory wikiPageExternalLink taleb08_index.html.
- Black_swan_theory wikiPageExternalLink tenprinciples.pdf.
- Black_swan_theory wikiPageExternalLink ?CategoryID=512&ArticleID=1297.
- Black_swan_theory wikiPageID "7361848".
- Black_swan_theory wikiPageRevisionID "602648564".
- Black_swan_theory hasPhotoCollection Black_swan_theory.
- Black_swan_theory subject Category:Behavioral_and_social_facets_of_systemic_risk.
- Black_swan_theory subject Category:Epistemological_theories.
- Black_swan_theory subject Category:Mathematical_finance.
- Black_swan_theory subject Category:Metatheory_of_science.
- Black_swan_theory type Abstraction100002137.
- Black_swan_theory type Cognition100023271.
- Black_swan_theory type EpistemologicalTheories.
- Black_swan_theory type Explanation105793000.
- Black_swan_theory type HigherCognitiveProcess105770664.
- Black_swan_theory type Process105701363.
- Black_swan_theory type PsychologicalFeature100023100.
- Black_swan_theory type Theory105989479.
- Black_swan_theory type Thinking105770926.
- Black_swan_theory comment "The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairsUnlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem," the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. ".
- Black_swan_theory label "Black swan theory".
- Black_swan_theory label "Teoria del Cigno Nero".
- Black_swan_theory label "Teoria do cisne preto".
- Black_swan_theory label "Teoría del cisne negro".
- Black_swan_theory label "Théorie du cygne noir".
- Black_swan_theory label "Чёрный лебедь (теория)".
- Black_swan_theory label "نظرية البجعة السوداء".
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Μαύρος_Κύκνος_(θεωρία).
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Teoría_del_cisne_negro.
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Théorie_du_cygne_noir.
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Teori_Angsa_Hitam.
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Teoria_del_Cigno_Nero.
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Teoria_do_cisne_preto.
- Black_swan_theory sameAs m.025_9r8.
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Q2074634.
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Q2074634.
- Black_swan_theory sameAs Black_swan_theory.
- Black_swan_theory wasDerivedFrom Black_swan_theory?oldid=602648564.
- Black_swan_theory depiction Cygnus_Atratus_Singapore.jpg.
- Black_swan_theory isPrimaryTopicOf Black_swan_theory.
