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- Dumb_agent_theory abstract "The dumb agent theory (DAT) states that many people making individual buying and selling decisions will better reflect true value than any one individual can. In finance this theory is predicated on the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH). One of the first instances of the dumb agent theory in action was with the Policy Analysis Market (PAM); a futures exchange developed by DARPA. While this project was quickly abandoned by the Pentagon, its idea is now implemented in futures exchanges and prediction markets such as Intrade, Newsfutures and Predictify. The DAT is technically a hypothesis, not a theory.While first mentioned strictly by name in relation to PAM in 2003, the dumb agent theory was originally conceived (as the Dumb Smart Market) by James Surowiecki in 1999. Here, Surowiecki differentiated from the EMH stating that it "doesn't mean that markets are always right." Instead, he argues that markets are subject to manias and panics because "people are always shouting out" their stock picks. This, in turn, results in other investors worrying about these picks and becoming influenced by them, which ultimately drives the markets (irrationally) up or down. His argument states that if market decisions were made independently of each other, and with the sole goal of being correct (as opposed to being in line with what others are choosing), then the markets would produce the best choice possible and eliminate biases such as groupthink, the bandwagon effect and the Abilene paradox.".
- Dumb_agent_theory wikiPageExternalLink dumb-agent-theory-explained.
- Dumb_agent_theory wikiPageID "16981381".
- Dumb_agent_theory wikiPageRevisionID "526566787".
- Dumb_agent_theory hasPhotoCollection Dumb_agent_theory.
- Dumb_agent_theory subject Category:Behavioral_finance.
- Dumb_agent_theory subject Category:Economic_theories.
- Dumb_agent_theory type Abstraction100002137.
- Dumb_agent_theory type Cognition100023271.
- Dumb_agent_theory type EconomicTheories.
- Dumb_agent_theory type EconomicTheory105994935.
- Dumb_agent_theory type Explanation105793000.
- Dumb_agent_theory type HigherCognitiveProcess105770664.
- Dumb_agent_theory type Process105701363.
- Dumb_agent_theory type PsychologicalFeature100023100.
- Dumb_agent_theory type Theory105989479.
- Dumb_agent_theory type Thinking105770926.
- Dumb_agent_theory comment "The dumb agent theory (DAT) states that many people making individual buying and selling decisions will better reflect true value than any one individual can. In finance this theory is predicated on the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH). One of the first instances of the dumb agent theory in action was with the Policy Analysis Market (PAM); a futures exchange developed by DARPA.".
- Dumb_agent_theory label "Dumb agent theory".
- Dumb_agent_theory sameAs m.0414bk8.
- Dumb_agent_theory sameAs Q5313662.
- Dumb_agent_theory sameAs Q5313662.
- Dumb_agent_theory sameAs Dumb_agent_theory.
- Dumb_agent_theory wasDerivedFrom Dumb_agent_theory?oldid=526566787.
- Dumb_agent_theory isPrimaryTopicOf Dumb_agent_theory.