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- Doomsday_argument abstract "The Doomsday argument (DA) is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. Simply put, it says that supposing the humans alive today are in a random place in the whole human history timeline, chances are we are about halfway through it.It was first proposed in an explicit way by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter in 1983, from which it is sometimes called the Carter catastrophe; the argument was subsequently championed by the philosopher John A. Leslie and has since been independently discovered by J. Richard Gott and Holger Bech Nielsen. Similar principles of eschatology were proposed earlier by Heinz von Foerster, among others.Denoting by N the total number of humans who were ever or will ever be born, the Copernican principle suggests that humans are equally likely (along with the other N − 1 humans) to find themselves at any position n of the total population N, so humans assume that our fractional position f = n/N is uniformly distributed on the interval [0, 1] prior to learning our absolute position.f is uniformly distributed on (0, 1] even after learning of the absolute position n. That is, for example, there is 95% chance that f is in the interval (0.05, 1], that is f > 0.05. In other words we could assume that we could be 95% certain that we would be within the last 95% of all the humans ever to be born. If we know our absolute position n, this implies an upper bound for N obtained by rearranging n/N > 0.05 to give N < 20n.If Leslie's Figure is used, then 60 billion humans have been born so far, so it can be estimated that there is a 95% chance that the total number of humans N will be less than 20 × 60 billion = 1.2 trillion. Assuming that the world population stabilizes at 10 billion and a life expectancy of 80 years, it can be estimated that the remaining 1,140 billion humans will be born in 9,120 years. Depending on the projection of world population in the forthcoming centuries, estimates may vary, but the main point of the argument is that it is unlikely that more than 1.2 trillion humans will ever live. This problem is similar to the famous German tank problem.".
- Doomsday_argument thumbnail Population_curve.svg?width=300.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink self-location.html.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink 0806.3538v1.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink 9407002.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink 7044.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink doom_soon.htm.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink nodoom.html.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink Caves2000a.pdf.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=2400044.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=82931.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink laster.html.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink doomsday.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink alive.html.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink primer1.html.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink gree04_.html.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink 0009081.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageExternalLink watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY.
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageID "574311".
- Doomsday_argument wikiPageRevisionID "601216404".
- Doomsday_argument hasPhotoCollection Doomsday_argument.
- Doomsday_argument subject Category:Eschatology.
- Doomsday_argument subject Category:Fermi_paradox.
- Doomsday_argument subject Category:Probabilistic_arguments.
- Doomsday_argument subject Category:Sociocultural_evolution.
- Doomsday_argument subject Category:Theories_of_history.
- Doomsday_argument type Abstraction100002137.
- Doomsday_argument type Argument106648724.
- Doomsday_argument type Cognition100023271.
- Doomsday_argument type Communication100033020.
- Doomsday_argument type Evidence106643408.
- Doomsday_argument type Explanation105793000.
- Doomsday_argument type HigherCognitiveProcess105770664.
- Doomsday_argument type Indication106797169.
- Doomsday_argument type ProbabilisticArguments.
- Doomsday_argument type Process105701363.
- Doomsday_argument type PsychologicalFeature100023100.
- Doomsday_argument type TheoriesOfHistory.
- Doomsday_argument type Theory105989479.
- Doomsday_argument type Thinking105770926.
- Doomsday_argument comment "The Doomsday argument (DA) is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far.".
- Doomsday_argument label "Argument de l'apocalypse".
- Doomsday_argument label "Argumento del juicio final".
- Doomsday_argument label "Doomsday argument".
- Doomsday_argument label "Doomsday-Argument".
- Doomsday_argument label "Теорема о конце света".
- Doomsday_argument label "末日论".
- Doomsday_argument sameAs Doomsday-Argument.
- Doomsday_argument sameAs Argumento_del_juicio_final.
- Doomsday_argument sameAs Argument_de_l'apocalypse.
- Doomsday_argument sameAs 인류_종말_논법.
- Doomsday_argument sameAs m.02rjzp.
- Doomsday_argument sameAs Q1242493.
- Doomsday_argument sameAs Q1242493.
- Doomsday_argument sameAs Doomsday_argument.
- Doomsday_argument wasDerivedFrom Doomsday_argument?oldid=601216404.
- Doomsday_argument depiction Population_curve.svg.
- Doomsday_argument isPrimaryTopicOf Doomsday_argument.
