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• Earthquake_prediction abstract "Earthquake prediction "is usually defined as the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of a future earthquake within stated limits", and particularly "the determination of parameters for the next strong earthquake to occur in a region." This can be distinguished from earthquake forecasting, which is the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes, in a given area over periods of years or decades. It can be further distinguished from real-time earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of a severe earthquake, can provide a few seconds of warning to neighboring regions.To be useful, an earthquake prediction must be precise enough to warrant the cost of increased precautions, including the disruption of ordinary activities and commerce, and timely enough that preparations can be made. Predictions must also be reliable, as false alarms and canceled alarms are economically costly and seriously undermine confidence in, and thereby the effectiveness of, any kind of warning.With over 13,000 earthquakes around the world each year having a magnitude of 4.0 or greater, trivial success in earthquake prediction is easily obtained using sufficiently broad parameters of time, location, or magnitude. However, such trivial "successful predictions" are not useful. Useful prediction of large (damaging) earthquakes in a timely manner is generally notable for its absence, the few claims of success being controversial. Extensive searches have reported many possible earthquake precursors, but none has been found to be reliable.In the 1970s there was intense optimism amongst scientists that some method of predicting earthquakes might be found, but by the 1990s continuing failure led many to question whether it was even possible. While many scientists still hold that, given enough resources, prediction might be possible, many others maintain that earthquake prediction is inherently impossible.".
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