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- Ensemble_forecasting abstract "Ensemble forecasting is a numerical prediction method that is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo analysis: multiple numerical predictions are conducted using slightly different initial conditions that are all plausible given the past and current set of observations, or measurements. Sometimes the ensemble of forecasts may use different forecast models for different members, or different formulations of a forecast model. The multiple simulations are conducted to account for the two usual sources of uncertainty in forecast models: (1) the errors introduced by the use of imperfect initial conditions, amplified by the chaotic nature of the evolution equations of the dynamical system, which is often referred to as sensitive dependence on the initial conditions; and (2) errors introduced because of imperfections in the model formulation, such as the approximate mathematical methods to solve the equations. Ideally, the verified future dynamical system state should fall within the predicted ensemble spread, and the amount of spread should be related to the uncertainty (error) of the forecast. Consider the problem of numerical weather prediction. In this case, the dynamic system is the atmosphere, the model is a numerical weather prediction model and the initial condition is represented by an objective analysis of an atmospheric state. Today ensemble predictions are commonly made at most of the major operational weather prediction facilities worldwide, including: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (US) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) United Kingdom Met Office Meteo France Environment Canada Japanese Meteorological Agency Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) China Meteorological Administration Korea Meteorological Administration CPTEC (Brazil)Experimental ensemble forecasts are made at a number of universities, such as the University of Washington, and ensemble forecasts in the US are also generated by the US Navy and Air Force. There are various ways of viewing the data such as spaghetti plots, ensemble means or Postage Stamps where a number of different results from the models run can be compared.".
- Ensemble_forecasting thumbnail WRF_rita_spread2.jpg?width=300.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink ds330.0.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink ds330.2.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink ds330.3.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink tigge-portal.ecmwf.int.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink tigge.ecmwf.int.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink tigge.ucar.edu.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink tigge.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink iddstats_vol_nc?EXP+dsspub.ucar.edu.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink ldm.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageExternalLink thorpex_new.html.
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageID "2451045".
- Ensemble_forecasting wikiPageRevisionID "606161063".
- Ensemble_forecasting hasPhotoCollection Ensemble_forecasting.
- Ensemble_forecasting subject Category:Climate_and_weather_statistics.
- Ensemble_forecasting subject Category:Climate_modeling.
- Ensemble_forecasting subject Category:Monte_Carlo_methods.
- Ensemble_forecasting subject Category:Numerical_climate_and_weather_models.
- Ensemble_forecasting subject Category:Statistical_forecasting.
- Ensemble_forecasting type Ability105616246.
- Ensemble_forecasting type Abstraction100002137.
- Ensemble_forecasting type Cognition100023271.
- Ensemble_forecasting type Know-how105616786.
- Ensemble_forecasting type Method105660268.
- Ensemble_forecasting type MonteCarloMethods.
- Ensemble_forecasting type PsychologicalFeature100023100.
- Ensemble_forecasting comment "Ensemble forecasting is a numerical prediction method that is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo analysis: multiple numerical predictions are conducted using slightly different initial conditions that are all plausible given the past and current set of observations, or measurements.".
- Ensemble_forecasting label "Ensemble forecasting".
- Ensemble_forecasting sameAs m.07d_t5.
- Ensemble_forecasting sameAs Q3433888.
- Ensemble_forecasting sameAs Q3433888.
- Ensemble_forecasting sameAs Ensemble_forecasting.
- Ensemble_forecasting wasDerivedFrom Ensemble_forecasting?oldid=606161063.
- Ensemble_forecasting depiction WRF_rita_spread2.jpg.
- Ensemble_forecasting isPrimaryTopicOf Ensemble_forecasting.
