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- catalog abstract "Declining revenues in the defense industry may eventually result in bankruptcies. This report considers whether a model could reliably predict defense contractors' bankruptcy. The authors find that models based on multivariate discriminant analysis or multiple linear regression analysis using financial data from nondefense firms are unlikely to perform well for defense firms. An approach using securities market information also appears unlikely to predict accurately. The authors conclude that subjective methods of pro forma analysis and expert financial judgment remain more promising. However, they suggest that methods unreliable for estimating bankruptcy probabilities might be reliable enough to rank companies according to these probabilities. They also recommend that those attempting to develop objective models consider using bond yields and accounting data as predictor variables.".
- catalog contributor b6430805.
- catalog contributor b6430806.
- catalog contributor b6430807.
- catalog contributor b6430808.
- catalog created "1994.".
- catalog date "1994".
- catalog date "1994.".
- catalog dateCopyrighted "1994.".
- catalog description "Declining revenues in the defense industry may eventually result in bankruptcies. This report considers whether a model could reliably predict defense contractors' bankruptcy. The authors find that models based on multivariate discriminant analysis or multiple linear regression analysis using financial data from nondefense firms are unlikely to perform well for defense firms. An approach using securities market information also appears unlikely to predict accurately. The authors conclude that subjective methods of pro forma analysis and expert financial judgment remain more promising. However, they suggest that methods unreliable for estimating bankruptcy probabilities might be reliable enough to rank companies according to these probabilities. They also recommend that those attempting to develop objective models consider using bond yields and accounting data as predictor variables.".
- catalog description "Includes bibliographical references (p. 35-37).".
- catalog extent "xv, 37 p. :".
- catalog identifier "0833015249".
- catalog issued "1994".
- catalog issued "1994.".
- catalog language "eng".
- catalog publisher "Santa Monica, CA : Rand Corp.,".
- catalog spatial "United States".
- catalog spatial "United States.".
- catalog subject "338.4/36233/0973 20".
- catalog subject "Bankruptcy United States.".
- catalog subject "Defense industries United States Finance Forecasting.".
- catalog subject "Disarmament Economic aspects United States.".
- catalog subject "HD9743.U6 B63 1994".
- catalog title "Statistical forecasting of bankruptcy of defense contractors : problems and prospects / Anthony G. Bower, Steven Garber.".
- catalog type "text".