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catalog contributor b10441454.
catalog created "c1998.".
catalog date "1998".
catalog date "c1998.".
catalog dateCopyrighted "c1998.".
catalog description "INTRODUCTION -- Preliminaries -- The Shape of Things to Come -- I. BACKGROUND -- 1. THE PHILOSOPHICAL ANTHROPOLOGY OF FORECASTING -- The Indispensability of Forecasters -- Attitudes toward Foreknowledge: Predictability Believers and Skeptics -- 2. HISTORICAL STAGESETTING -- From Antiquity to the Middle Ages -- The Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries -- The Nineteenth Century -- The Rise (and Fall?) of Futurology in the Post-World War II Era -- II. CONCEPTUAL, EPISTEMIC, AND ONTOLOGICAL BASICS -- 3. CONCEPTUAL PRELIMINARIES -- Predictive Questions and Answers -- Predictions versus Forecasts -- Prediction and Probability -- Pseudoprediction and Spurious Futurity -- Prediction and Mathematics -- Metapredictions, Reflexivity, and Feedback Phenomena -- 4. BASIC EPISTEMIC ISSUES -- Rational Anticipation: The Need for Predictive Cogency -- The Information Sensitivity of Prediction -- The Essentiality of Detail and the Security -- Definiteness Tradeoff -- ".
catalog description "IV. PREDICTIVE PRACTICE -- 9. PREDICTION IN THE SCIENCES -- Prediction and the Aims of Science -- The Supposed Symmetry of Prediction and Explanation -- The Harmony Thesis: The Symbiosis of Explanation and Prediction -- Predictive Slack: The Looseness of Fit between Predictive Performance and the Truth of Theories -- Limits to Predictive Capacity -- 10. PREDICTIONS ABOUT NATURAL SCIENCE: THE PROBLEM OF FUTURE KNOWLEDGE -- The Impermanence of Theory in Natural Science: Why Theories Fail -- Difficulties in Predicting Future Science -- In Natural Science, the Present Cannot Speak for the Future -- Could Natural Science Achieve Predictive Completeness? -- The Infeasibility of Identifying Insolubilia -- Predictive Implications of the Information/Knowledge Relationship -- 11. PREDICTION IN HUMAN AFFAIRS -- The Fate of Individuals and Groups -- Prediction in Economics -- Other Social Sciences (Demographics, Sociology, Politics, etc.) -- Can History Predict? -- V. PREDICTIVE LIMITS -- 12. FUNDAMENTAL LIMITS ON PREDICTORS -- The Impracticability of an All-Purpose Predictive Engine -- Problems of Reflexivity and Metaprediction -- Predictive Exaggeration and Other Biases -- 13. PREDICTIVE INCAPACITY AND RATIONAL DECISION PROBLEMS -- Rationality and Predictability -- Predictive Overdetermination: The Case of the Predictive Poisoner -- Another Case of Analysis Underdetermination: The Prisoner's Dilemma -- Lessons -- 14. THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME: FACING THE FUTURE -- Key Aspects of the Future -- The Problem of the Future's Tractability -- Coping with Impotence -- The Portent of the Future: Optimism versus Pessimism -- Would We Really Want to Know? -- Coda.".
catalog description "Includes bibliographical references (p. 283-310) and index.".
catalog description "Inferential Incapacity -- Factor Exfoliation and Impredictability Diffusion -- Misprediction: Prediction Spoilers".
catalog description "Scientific Prediction: Predictive Validation via Laws and Modeling -- Second-Order Processes: Forecast Amalgamation -- 7. THE EVALUATION OF PREDICTIONS AND PREDICTORS -- Evaluating Predictive Questions -- The Resolvability of Predictive Questions -- Difficulty -- The Relevancy of Predictive Answers -- Predictive Detail: Specifics versus Generalities -- Correctness -- Accuracy -- Credibility/Evidentiation/Probability -- The Dialectic of Credibility and Correctness -- Robustness -- On Evaluating Predictors: Standards of Predictive Competence -- 8. OBSTACLES TO PREDICTIVE FOREKNOWLEDGE -- The Epistemological and Ontological Limits of Predictability -- Uncertainty: Ignorance as a Prime Obstacle to Prediction -- Anarchy and Instability -- Ontological Impredictability: Chance -- More on Chance and Uncertainty: The Case of the Surprise Examination -- Chaos (Or Extreme Volatility) -- Spontaneity, Choice, and Free Will -- Innovation -- Fuzziness: Problems of Quantum Indeterminism -- Myopia -- ".
catalog description "The Prospect of Rational Prediction and the Justification of Induction -- The Risk of Error -- 5. Some Ontological Issues -- Futuristic Ontology: The Truth Status of Claims about the Future -- Predictability versus Predetermination: The LaPlacean Vision -- Statistical Predictability -- Predictive Reach: Forecasting Horizons and Short-Range versus Long-Range Forecasting -- Volatility and the Prospects of Prediction: The Circumstantiality of Prediction -- III. PREDICTIVE METHODS AND THEIR POTENTIAL -- 6. PREDICTIVE METHODS -- Predictive Methodologies -- Unformalized (Judgmental) Predictions -- Amalgamating Expert Predictions: Aggregation Processes (Averaging) -- Amalgamating Expert Predictions: Delphi Methodology and Consensus -- Systematized Expertise ("Expert Systems" or "Bootstrapping") -- Some Formal Methods of Prediction: Trend Extrapolation, Pattern Fitting -- Indicators (Rationalized and Unexplained) -- Black-Box Prediction and Its Role -- ".
catalog extent "xiv 315 p. ;".
catalog identifier "0791435539 (hc : alk. paper)".
catalog identifier "0791435547 (pb : alk. paper)".
catalog issued "1998".
catalog issued "c1998.".
catalog language "eng".
catalog publisher "Albany : State University of New York Press,".
catalog subject "303.49 21".
catalog subject "CB158 .R47 1998".
catalog subject "Forecasting.".
catalog tableOfContents "INTRODUCTION -- Preliminaries -- The Shape of Things to Come -- I. BACKGROUND -- 1. THE PHILOSOPHICAL ANTHROPOLOGY OF FORECASTING -- The Indispensability of Forecasters -- Attitudes toward Foreknowledge: Predictability Believers and Skeptics -- 2. HISTORICAL STAGESETTING -- From Antiquity to the Middle Ages -- The Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries -- The Nineteenth Century -- The Rise (and Fall?) of Futurology in the Post-World War II Era -- II. CONCEPTUAL, EPISTEMIC, AND ONTOLOGICAL BASICS -- 3. CONCEPTUAL PRELIMINARIES -- Predictive Questions and Answers -- Predictions versus Forecasts -- Prediction and Probability -- Pseudoprediction and Spurious Futurity -- Prediction and Mathematics -- Metapredictions, Reflexivity, and Feedback Phenomena -- 4. BASIC EPISTEMIC ISSUES -- Rational Anticipation: The Need for Predictive Cogency -- The Information Sensitivity of Prediction -- The Essentiality of Detail and the Security -- Definiteness Tradeoff -- ".
catalog tableOfContents "IV. PREDICTIVE PRACTICE -- 9. PREDICTION IN THE SCIENCES -- Prediction and the Aims of Science -- The Supposed Symmetry of Prediction and Explanation -- The Harmony Thesis: The Symbiosis of Explanation and Prediction -- Predictive Slack: The Looseness of Fit between Predictive Performance and the Truth of Theories -- Limits to Predictive Capacity -- 10. PREDICTIONS ABOUT NATURAL SCIENCE: THE PROBLEM OF FUTURE KNOWLEDGE -- The Impermanence of Theory in Natural Science: Why Theories Fail -- Difficulties in Predicting Future Science -- In Natural Science, the Present Cannot Speak for the Future -- Could Natural Science Achieve Predictive Completeness? -- The Infeasibility of Identifying Insolubilia -- Predictive Implications of the Information/Knowledge Relationship -- 11. PREDICTION IN HUMAN AFFAIRS -- The Fate of Individuals and Groups -- Prediction in Economics -- Other Social Sciences (Demographics, Sociology, Politics, etc.) -- Can History Predict? -- V. PREDICTIVE LIMITS -- 12. FUNDAMENTAL LIMITS ON PREDICTORS -- The Impracticability of an All-Purpose Predictive Engine -- Problems of Reflexivity and Metaprediction -- Predictive Exaggeration and Other Biases -- 13. PREDICTIVE INCAPACITY AND RATIONAL DECISION PROBLEMS -- Rationality and Predictability -- Predictive Overdetermination: The Case of the Predictive Poisoner -- Another Case of Analysis Underdetermination: The Prisoner's Dilemma -- Lessons -- 14. THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME: FACING THE FUTURE -- Key Aspects of the Future -- The Problem of the Future's Tractability -- Coping with Impotence -- The Portent of the Future: Optimism versus Pessimism -- Would We Really Want to Know? -- Coda.".
catalog tableOfContents "Inferential Incapacity -- Factor Exfoliation and Impredictability Diffusion -- Misprediction: Prediction Spoilers".
catalog tableOfContents "Scientific Prediction: Predictive Validation via Laws and Modeling -- Second-Order Processes: Forecast Amalgamation -- 7. THE EVALUATION OF PREDICTIONS AND PREDICTORS -- Evaluating Predictive Questions -- The Resolvability of Predictive Questions -- Difficulty -- The Relevancy of Predictive Answers -- Predictive Detail: Specifics versus Generalities -- Correctness -- Accuracy -- Credibility/Evidentiation/Probability -- The Dialectic of Credibility and Correctness -- Robustness -- On Evaluating Predictors: Standards of Predictive Competence -- 8. OBSTACLES TO PREDICTIVE FOREKNOWLEDGE -- The Epistemological and Ontological Limits of Predictability -- Uncertainty: Ignorance as a Prime Obstacle to Prediction -- Anarchy and Instability -- Ontological Impredictability: Chance -- More on Chance and Uncertainty: The Case of the Surprise Examination -- Chaos (Or Extreme Volatility) -- Spontaneity, Choice, and Free Will -- Innovation -- Fuzziness: Problems of Quantum Indeterminism -- Myopia -- ".
catalog tableOfContents "The Prospect of Rational Prediction and the Justification of Induction -- The Risk of Error -- 5. Some Ontological Issues -- Futuristic Ontology: The Truth Status of Claims about the Future -- Predictability versus Predetermination: The LaPlacean Vision -- Statistical Predictability -- Predictive Reach: Forecasting Horizons and Short-Range versus Long-Range Forecasting -- Volatility and the Prospects of Prediction: The Circumstantiality of Prediction -- III. PREDICTIVE METHODS AND THEIR POTENTIAL -- 6. PREDICTIVE METHODS -- Predictive Methodologies -- Unformalized (Judgmental) Predictions -- Amalgamating Expert Predictions: Aggregation Processes (Averaging) -- Amalgamating Expert Predictions: Delphi Methodology and Consensus -- Systematized Expertise ("Expert Systems" or "Bootstrapping") -- Some Formal Methods of Prediction: Trend Extrapolation, Pattern Fitting -- Indicators (Rationalized and Unexplained) -- Black-Box Prediction and Its Role -- ".
catalog title "Predicting the future : an introduction to the theory of forecasting / Nicholas Rescher.".
catalog type "text".