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- catalog abstract "This paper incorporates an option value into deforestation policy analysis. Similar to an option value in finance, the option value here reflects the advantage to delaying irreversible species extinction until more information about the uncertain value of species is known. The return from species is modeled as a stochastic flow of benefits which ceases if policy makers choose to deforest. Deforestation produces known profits from wood, and agriculture or ranching. Model variations include using geometric Brownian motion and a Poisson jump process to model the variation in species values, and the effect of considering whether "harvesting" of species can occur during deforestation. The model demonstrates that uncertainty over the value of species should encourage forest protection beyond what present discounted value comparisons (traditional cost-benefit analysis) would imply. Data from studies of Brazil's Amazonia region are used to provide numerical examples of the differences between traditional cost-benefit methods and the option-theoretic approach described here.".
- catalog contributor b10528026.
- catalog contributor b10528027.
- catalog created "1994.".
- catalog date "1994".
- catalog date "1994.".
- catalog dateCopyrighted "1994.".
- catalog description "Includes bibliographical references (p. 32-33).".
- catalog description "Supported by the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, the National Science Foundation, and the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program at MIT.".
- catalog description "This paper incorporates an option value into deforestation policy analysis. Similar to an option value in finance, the option value here reflects the advantage to delaying irreversible species extinction until more information about the uncertain value of species is known. The return from species is modeled as a stochastic flow of benefits which ceases if policy makers choose to deforest. Deforestation produces known profits from wood, and agriculture or ranching. Model variations include using geometric Brownian motion and a Poisson jump process to model the variation in species values, and the effect of considering whether "harvesting" of species can occur during deforestation. The model demonstrates that uncertainty over the value of species should encourage forest protection beyond what present discounted value comparisons (traditional cost-benefit analysis) would imply. Data from studies of Brazil's Amazonia region are used to provide numerical examples of the differences between traditional cost-benefit methods and the option-theoretic approach described here.".
- catalog extent "33 p. :".
- catalog isPartOf "MIT-CEEPR (Series) ; 94-007WP.".
- catalog isPartOf "MIT-CEEPR ; 94-007WP".
- catalog issued "1994".
- catalog issued "1994.".
- catalog language "eng".
- catalog publisher "[Cambridge, Mass.] : Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,".
- catalog subject "Option value.".
- catalog subject "Species Mathematical models.".
- catalog subject "Variation (Biology) Mathematical models.".
- catalog title "Irreversibility and uncertainty in species valuation / by Eileen L. Brooks.".
- catalog type "text".