Matches in Harvard for { <http://id.lib.harvard.edu/aleph/007722623/catalog> ?p ?o. }
Showing items 1 to 19 of
19
with 100 items per page.
- catalog abstract "Long business expansions have repeatedly generated expectations of self- perpetuating prosperity, yet it is clear that such popular forecasts always proved wrong eventually. Few business cycle peaks are successfully predicted; indeed, most are publicly recognized only with lengty delays. Analysts have been prompter to recognize troughs than peaks, even though the latter have often followed major slowdowns and have much longer (but also more variable variable) leadtimes of the indicators. Oil price boosts and monetary policy shifts triggered some recent cyclical downturns, but even in these particular episodes other more regularly observed developments played major roles. THe insistence on single shocks as the causes of recessions is erroneous: the older emphasis on movements in the growth of demand, money and credit, profits and investment deserve a revival. The relatively new but now widely held belief is that, for the recession-free stability to reign, real growth must be no more than moderate and inflation must stay quiescent but financial asset prices can rise indefinitely. The risk of overheating alone is being emphasized but downside as well as upside risks exist and both need to be continually considered.".
- catalog contributor b10677246.
- catalog contributor b10677247.
- catalog created "c1998.".
- catalog date "1998".
- catalog date "c1998.".
- catalog dateCopyrighted "c1998.".
- catalog description "Includes bibliographical references (p. 16).".
- catalog description "Long business expansions have repeatedly generated expectations of self- perpetuating prosperity, yet it is clear that such popular forecasts always proved wrong eventually. Few business cycle peaks are successfully predicted; indeed, most are publicly recognized only with lengty delays. Analysts have been prompter to recognize troughs than peaks, even though the latter have often followed major slowdowns and have much longer (but also more variable variable) leadtimes of the indicators. Oil price boosts and monetary policy shifts triggered some recent cyclical downturns, but even in these particular episodes other more regularly observed developments played major roles. THe insistence on single shocks as the causes of recessions is erroneous: the older emphasis on movements in the growth of demand, money and credit, profits and investment deserve a revival. The relatively new but now widely held belief is that, for the recession-free stability to reign, real growth must be no more than moderate and inflation must stay quiescent but financial asset prices can rise indefinitely. The risk of overheating alone is being emphasized but downside as well as upside risks exist and both need to be continually considered.".
- catalog extent "16 p. ;".
- catalog isPartOf "NBER working paper series ; working paper 6367".
- catalog isPartOf "Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; working paper no. 6367.".
- catalog issued "1998".
- catalog issued "c1998.".
- catalog language "eng".
- catalog publisher "Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research,".
- catalog title "Has the business cycle been abolished? / Victor Zarnowitz.".
- catalog type "Computer network resources. local".
- catalog type "text".