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• catalog abstract ""Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past United Nations and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened." "Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail." "How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections." "This book will be important to policy makers, demographers, social scientists, population activists, journalists, and individuals interested in this important and controversial discussion."--Jacket.".
• catalog alternative "Beyond 6 billion".
• catalog contributor b11828244.
• catalog contributor b11828245.
• catalog contributor b11828246.
• catalog contributor b11828247.
• catalog contributor b11828248.
• catalog created "c2000.".
• catalog date "2000".
• catalog date "c2000.".
• catalog dateCopyrighted "c2000.".
• catalog description ""Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past United Nations and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened." "Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail." "How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections." "This book will be important to policy makers, demographers, social scientists, population activists, journalists, and individuals interested in this important and controversial discussion."--Jacket.".
• catalog description "Current World Projections -- Accuracy of Past Projections -- Fertility -- Mortality -- International Migration -- The Uncertainty of Projections -- Implications -- Overview of World Projections -- Forces Driving Population Growth -- How Population Projections Are Made -- All Projections Suffer from Uncertainty -- Guide to the Report -- The Accuracy of Past Projections -- Projected Population Size -- Correlates of Projection Errors -- Projected Age Structures -- Projected Component Rates -- Transitional Fertility -- Fertility Change in Developing Regions -- Reasons for Fertility Decline -- Current Methods of Projecting Fertility -- Fertility Transition in the 21st Century -- Posttransition Fertility -- Fertility Levels and Past Trends -- Projected Fertility Trends -- Interpreting Fertility Trends -- Explaining Fertility Trends -- Possible Policy Responses -- Future Technological Developments -- Mortality -- Current Levels of Life Expectancy -- Mortality Transition -- Mortality Projections -- Future Trends in Life Expectancy -- International Migration -- Current Levels and Trends -- Future Migration Trends -- Projecting Migration -- Improving Migration Projections -- The Uncertainty of Population Forecasts -- The Scenario Approach and Its Problems -- Thinking About Forecast Errors -- Three Approaches to Constructing Predictive Distributions -- New Estimates of Uncertainty Based on Ex Post Analysis -- Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population -- Accuracy of Population Projections from the 1970s to the 1990s.".
• catalog description "Includes bibliographical references and index.".
• catalog extent "xviii, 236 p. :".
• catalog hasFormat "Beyond six billion.".
• catalog identifier "0309069904 (hard)".
• catalog isFormatOf "Beyond six billion.".
• catalog issued "2000".
• catalog issued "c2000.".
• catalog language "eng".
• catalog publisher "Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press,".
• catalog relation "Beyond six billion.".
• catalog subject "304.6/2/0112 21".
• catalog subject "Demography.".
• catalog subject "Forecasting methods.".
• catalog subject "HB849.53 .N385 2000".
• catalog subject "Population forecasting.".
• catalog subject "Population.".
• catalog tableOfContents "Current World Projections -- Accuracy of Past Projections -- Fertility -- Mortality -- International Migration -- The Uncertainty of Projections -- Implications -- Overview of World Projections -- Forces Driving Population Growth -- How Population Projections Are Made -- All Projections Suffer from Uncertainty -- Guide to the Report -- The Accuracy of Past Projections -- Projected Population Size -- Correlates of Projection Errors -- Projected Age Structures -- Projected Component Rates -- Transitional Fertility -- Fertility Change in Developing Regions -- Reasons for Fertility Decline -- Current Methods of Projecting Fertility -- Fertility Transition in the 21st Century -- Posttransition Fertility -- Fertility Levels and Past Trends -- Projected Fertility Trends -- Interpreting Fertility Trends -- Explaining Fertility Trends -- Possible Policy Responses -- Future Technological Developments -- Mortality -- Current Levels of Life Expectancy -- Mortality Transition -- Mortality Projections -- Future Trends in Life Expectancy -- International Migration -- Current Levels and Trends -- Future Migration Trends -- Projecting Migration -- Improving Migration Projections -- The Uncertainty of Population Forecasts -- The Scenario Approach and Its Problems -- Thinking About Forecast Errors -- Three Approaches to Constructing Predictive Distributions -- New Estimates of Uncertainty Based on Ex Post Analysis -- Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population -- Accuracy of Population Projections from the 1970s to the 1990s.".
• catalog title "Beyond 6 billion".
• catalog title "Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population / Panel on Population Projections, John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, editors.".
• catalog type "text".