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- catalog abstract "China's economy is expected to grow over the next 20 years at a rate that will make it larger than the U.S. economy at the end of that period. This suggests that China has the economic potential to be a U.S. military rival by the year 2020. But can it become such a rival? At present, China's military hardware is largely based on 1950s Soviet technology. To produce weaponry technologically comparable to U.S. weaponry by 2020, China would have to improve its technological capabilities through internal, defense-industry efforts and/or other avenues: direct transfers of military technology from abroad, imports of components and equipment, and diffusion from China's civilian industries. Of these three, the third, diffusion from civilian industries, is the most promising over the long run. This report explores this option, examining China's current commercial technology in eight industries (microelectronics, computers, telecommunications equipment, nuclear power, biotechnology, chemicals, aviation, and space) that have the most potential for supporting military technology development, and assessing the prospects for technological progress (in terms of capabilities, effort, incentives, and institutions) over the next 10 to 20 years. The findings suggest that even though China's military will not be the U.S. military's technological equal by 2020, the U.S. still must prepare for a Chinese military whose capabilities will steadily advance in the next 10 to 20 years and that may develop capabilities in certain "niches" that will present difficulties for the U.S. military in some potential-conflict scenarios.".
- catalog contributor b12106014.
- catalog contributor b12106015.
- catalog contributor b12106016.
- catalog contributor b12106017.
- catalog coverage "China Armed Forces.".
- catalog coverage "China Defenses.".
- catalog coverage "China Economic conditions 1976-2000.".
- catalog created "2001.".
- catalog date "2001".
- catalog date "2001.".
- catalog dateCopyrighted "2001.".
- catalog description "Ch. 1. Introduction -- Ch. 2. Background -- Ch. 3. China's Current Civilian Technology -- Ch. 4. Potential for Further Progress -- Ch. 5. Conclusion.".
- catalog description "China's economy is expected to grow over the next 20 years at a rate that will make it larger than the U.S. economy at the end of that period. This suggests that China has the economic potential to be a U.S. military rival by the year 2020. But can it become such a rival? At present, China's military hardware is largely based on 1950s Soviet technology. To produce weaponry technologically comparable to U.S. weaponry by 2020, China would have to improve its technological capabilities through internal, defense-industry efforts and/or other avenues: direct transfers of military technology from abroad, imports of components and equipment, and diffusion from China's civilian industries. Of these three, the third, diffusion from civilian industries, is the most promising over the long run. This report explores this option, examining China's current commercial technology in eight industries (microelectronics, computers, telecommunications equipment, nuclear power, biotechnology, chemicals, aviation, and space) that have the most potential for supporting military technology development, and assessing the prospects for technological progress (in terms of capabilities, effort, incentives, and institutions) over the next 10 to 20 years. The findings suggest that even though China's military will not be the U.S. military's technological equal by 2020, the U.S. still must prepare for a Chinese military whose capabilities will steadily advance in the next 10 to 20 years and that may develop capabilities in certain "niches" that will present difficulties for the U.S. military in some potential-conflict scenarios.".
- catalog description "Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-77).".
- catalog description "Sponsored by the United States Air Force. F49642-Q6-C-0001".
- catalog extent "xvii, 77 p. :".
- catalog hasFormat "Military potential of China's commercial technology.".
- catalog identifier "0833029398 (pbk.)".
- catalog isFormatOf "Military potential of China's commercial technology.".
- catalog issued "2001".
- catalog issued "2001.".
- catalog language "eng".
- catalog publisher "Santa Monica, CA : Rand,".
- catalog relation "Military potential of China's commercial technology.".
- catalog spatial "China Armed Forces.".
- catalog spatial "China Defenses.".
- catalog spatial "China Economic conditions 1976-2000.".
- catalog spatial "China.".
- catalog subject "355/.07/0951 21".
- catalog subject "Industrial mobilization China.".
- catalog subject "UA835 .C57 2001".
- catalog tableOfContents "Ch. 1. Introduction -- Ch. 2. Background -- Ch. 3. China's Current Civilian Technology -- Ch. 4. Potential for Further Progress -- Ch. 5. Conclusion.".
- catalog title "The military potential of China's commercial technology / Roger Cliff.".
- catalog type "text".