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catalog abstract ""The checkered history of predicting the future--e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty."".
catalog alternative "Shaping the next 100 years".
catalog contributor b12958032.
catalog contributor b12958033.
catalog contributor b12958034.
catalog contributor b12958035.
catalog created "2003.".
catalog date "2003".
catalog date "2003.".
catalog dateCopyrighted "2003.".
catalog description ""The checkered history of predicting the future--e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty."".
catalog description "Includes bibliographical references.".
catalog description "The Challenge of Long-Term Policy Analysis -- Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible -- The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development -- Surprise: The Constant Element -- A History of Thinking about the Future -- Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future -- Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight -- Simulation Modeling -- Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty -- Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures -- Assessing the State of the Art -- Robust Decisionmaking -- Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty -- Consider Ensembles of Scenarios -- Seek Robust Strategies -- Employ Adaptive Strategies -- Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactively -- A Framework for Scenario Generation -- The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainability -- The "XLRM" Framework -- Implementing Robust Decisionmaking -- Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Development -- Landscapes of Plausible Futures -- No Fixed Strategy Is Robust -- Exploring Near-Term Milestones -- Identifying a Robust Strategy -- Characterizing Irreducible Risks -- Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Development -- Policy-Relevant Long-Term Policy Analysis -- Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generators -- Improved Navigation -- A Diversity of Measures and Values -- Engaging the Community of Stakeholders -- Improving Long-Term Decisionmaking -- Conclusion: Moving Past Familiar Shores -- Description of the Wonderland Scenario Generator -- Assessing Robust Strategies.".
catalog extent "xxi, 187 p. :".
catalog identifier "0833032755 (pbk.)".
catalog issued "2003".
catalog issued "2003.".
catalog language "eng".
catalog publisher "Santa Monica, Calif. : Rand,".
catalog subject "320/.6/0113 21".
catalog subject "Decision making.".
catalog subject "Information technology.".
catalog subject "System analysis.".
catalog subject "T57.6 .L46 2003".
catalog tableOfContents "The Challenge of Long-Term Policy Analysis -- Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible -- The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development -- Surprise: The Constant Element -- A History of Thinking about the Future -- Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future -- Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight -- Simulation Modeling -- Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty -- Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures -- Assessing the State of the Art -- Robust Decisionmaking -- Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty -- Consider Ensembles of Scenarios -- Seek Robust Strategies -- Employ Adaptive Strategies -- Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactively -- A Framework for Scenario Generation -- The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainability -- The "XLRM" Framework -- Implementing Robust Decisionmaking -- Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Development -- Landscapes of Plausible Futures -- No Fixed Strategy Is Robust -- Exploring Near-Term Milestones -- Identifying a Robust Strategy -- Characterizing Irreducible Risks -- Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Development -- Policy-Relevant Long-Term Policy Analysis -- Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generators -- Improved Navigation -- A Diversity of Measures and Values -- Engaging the Community of Stakeholders -- Improving Long-Term Decisionmaking -- Conclusion: Moving Past Familiar Shores -- Description of the Wonderland Scenario Generator -- Assessing Robust Strategies.".
catalog title "Shaping the next 100 years".
catalog title "Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes.".
catalog type "text".